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What will be the outcome of Turkey's military intervention in Syria by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Official statements from the Turkish government and international news agencies
Story
Erdogan Warns of Military Intervention to Prevent Syria's Fragmentation
Jan 6, 2025, 04:54 PM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared that Turkey will not tolerate the fragmentation or disruption of Syria's unitary structure. He emphasized that if any risk arises in this regard, Turkey is prepared to take swift action, including military intervention if necessary, to prevent such an outcome. Erdogan's statements suggest a readiness to intervene militarily if necessary, indicating Turkey's firm stance on maintaining Syria's territorial integrity.
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Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
Complete eradication • 25%
PKK/YPG strengthens • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial elimination • 25%
YPG strengthens • 25%
No significant change • 25%
YPG fully eliminated • 25%