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What will be the outcome of Türkiye's involvement in northern Syria by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements
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White House Recognizes Türkiye's Role in Syria, Ceasefire with SDF Extended to Week's End
Dec 17, 2024, 06:30 PM
The White House has acknowledged Türkiye's significant role in the future of Syria, with National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stating that Türkiye is a key actor in any outcome related to the country. The U.S. has been engaging with Türkiye at various levels, recognizing their legitimate concerns about the terrorist threat along their border with Syria. Additionally, the U.S. State Department announced that a ceasefire between Türkiye and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria has been extended until the end of the week. This extension aims to maintain peace in the region, particularly in the Manbij area, where efforts have been made to reach a ceasefire.
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Other outcome • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement on de-escalation measures • 25%
Continued diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Increased tensions leading to sanctions • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other • 25%