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What will be the outcome of Turkish diplomatic efforts in Syria by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official announcements from involved parties
Story
Erdoğan: Turkey Pledges Support to Syrians, Will Prevent Syria's Division and Return to Conflict
Dec 10, 2024, 11:59 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared that Turkey will not allow Syria to be divided again and will stand with the Syrian people against any attacks on Syria's stability and territorial integrity. Addressing the Syrian people directly, Erdoğan said, 'You wrote history with your blood. You have resisted and said God is great and persevered. We salute you with honour. We will support you as we did during your time of need.' He pledged that Turkey will support Syria politically, economically, militarily, and diplomatically, asserting that 'Syria belongs to the Syrians.' Erdoğan also stated that Turkey will not permit Syrian lands to become conflict zones again and will oversee the return of Syrians to their homeland. Emphasizing solidarity, he said that any attack on Syria would find both the Syrian people and Turkey opposing it.
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Deterioration in relations • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%
Increased economic involvement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Successful mediation • 25%
Failed mediation • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Continued informal talks • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Partial success • 25%