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What will be the outcome of Turkish influence in Syria by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and statements from involved governments
Story
Trump Praises Erdogan, Claims Turkey Behind Assad's Overthrow in Syria
Dec 16, 2024, 07:15 PM
President-elect Donald Trump praised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, describing him as a "very smart guy" and someone he "got along with great." Trump highlighted that Erdogan has built a "very strong, powerful army" that has "not been worn out with war." He stated that Turkey is behind the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government, referring to it as an "unfriendly takeover" by Turkey. Trump suggested that Turkey has "wanted it for thousands of years and he got it," indicating that Turkey will "hold the key to what happens in Syria." Emphasizing his desire to avoid American casualties, Trump remarked that he does not want U.S. soldiers "to be killed in Syria." He also described Assad as a "butcher" for his actions against children.
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Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stable control • 25%
Partial control • 25%
Loss of control • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Continued informal talks • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Returned to Syrian government control • 25%
Remain under Turkish influence • 25%
Controlled by local Syrian groups • 25%
Other status • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful stabilization • 25%
Partial stabilization • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Deterioration of situation • 25%