Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey's military operations in Northern Syria by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from Turkish government and international news coverage
Story
Turkey Rejects U.S. Ceasefire Claim, Denies Truce with SDF in Northern Syria
Dec 19, 2024, 09:06 AM
Turkish defense officials have denied reports of a ceasefire in northern Syria between Turkey and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), stating there is "no agreement on truce" and that Turkey does not negotiate with terrorist organizations, suggesting that the U.S. statement was a "slip of the tongue." They emphasized that Turkey will continue preventive measures against terrorist groups and will press until the Kurdish militias lay down their arms. Clashes and mutual shelling have been reported between the SDF and Turkish-backed factions around the Tishrin Dam area in the eastern Aleppo countryside. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported heavy fighting near the dam and in Manbij.
View original story
Similar markets
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Failure • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Partial success • 25%
PKK/YPG strengthens • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
Complete eradication • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
YPG disbanded • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
SDF regains control • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%