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What type of military action will Turkey take in Syria by June 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Air strikes • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
No military action • 25%
Official Turkish military reports and international news coverage
Story
Erdogan Warns of Military Intervention to Prevent Syria's Fragmentation
Jan 6, 2025, 04:54 PM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared that Turkey will not tolerate the fragmentation or disruption of Syria's unitary structure. He emphasized that if any risk arises in this regard, Turkey is prepared to take swift action, including military intervention if necessary, to prevent such an outcome. Erdogan's statements suggest a readiness to intervene militarily if necessary, indicating Turkey's firm stance on maintaining Syria's territorial integrity.
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Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Maintained current level • 25%
Reduced presence • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%
Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
ISIS • 25%
Other • 25%
Syrian Government Forces • 25%
PKK/YPG • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Continued standoff • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Military incursion into Kobani • 25%
No significant actions • 25%
Diplomatic normalization • 25%
Trade agreement • 25%
Military cooperation agreement • 25%