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What will be Turkey's influence outcome in Syria by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official government statements
Story
Trump: Turkey 'Holds the Key' to Syria After 'Unfriendly Takeover'; Praises Erdogan's Strong Army
Dec 16, 2024, 05:48 PM
President-elect Donald Trump praised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as 'very smart' and 'very tough,' noting that Erdogan is somebody he 'got along with great.' Trump stated that Turkey is behind the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, describing it as an 'unfriendly takeover without a lot of lives being lost.' He emphasized that Turkey has 'not been worn out with war' and has built a 'very strong, powerful army.' Trump suggested that Turkey will 'hold the key' to what happens in Syria, adding that 'they've wanted Syria for thousands of years and now he got it.' He also mentioned that Turkey controls the rebels who took over from Assad and characterized Assad as 'a butcher' for his actions against children.
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Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Continued informal talks • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Loss of control • 25%
Partial control • 25%
Stable control • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
Increased economic involvement • 25%
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%