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What will be the outcome of TikTok's situation in the U.S. by January 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Temporary extension granted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance, U.S. government, or news reports
Story
Supreme Court Upholds TikTok Ban Unless Chinese Owner ByteDance Divests by Sunday
Jan 17, 2025, 03:20 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court has unanimously upheld a federal law requiring TikTok's China-based parent company, ByteDance, to divest its ownership of the popular social media platform or face a nationwide ban. The decision paves the way for TikTok to be banned in the United States as soon as Sunday, January 19, unless ByteDance complies with the divestiture requirement. The Court sided with Congress's national security concerns over claims that the ban violates the First Amendment. The Biden administration has signaled that no action will be taken, and it remains unclear what options are available to President-elect Donald Trump when he assumes office on Monday.
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Other outcome • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
TikTok remains available without ByteDance divestment • 25%
TikTok remains available with ByteDance divestment • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
Biden administration assures non-enforcement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Service providers continue support • 25%
TikTok shuts down • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Not banned, but ByteDance divests • 25%
Banned • 25%
Not banned, no divestment • 25%
Addressed Security Concerns • 25%
Faced Ban • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
Negotiated Sale • 25%
TikTok remains available under new ownership • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok remains available without changes • 25%
TikTok remains available • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Continues operations without change • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Other • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Other • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
TikTok sold to US company • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues operations • 25%
TikTok is banned in the U.S. • 25%
Extension granted for divestment • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%