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Market
What will be the outcome of TikTok's U.S. operations by January 19, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from TikTok, ByteDance, and major news outlets.
Story
Supreme Court Poised to Uphold TikTok Ban Over National Security Concerns Unless Sold by Jan. 19
Jan 10, 2025, 05:24 PM
On January 9-10, 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments over a law passed in April 2024 that could ban TikTok in the United States unless it is sold by its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, by January 19. TikTok, which has approximately 170 million U.S. users, argues that the law violates the First Amendment rights of American users. The law, citing national security concerns over potential access to American user data by the Chinese government, would prohibit app stores from offering TikTok and bar internet hosting services from hosting the app if TikTok isn't sold to an approved buyer. TikTok announced it plans to shut down its U.S. operations on January 19 unless the Supreme Court strikes down or delays the law requiring its sale. During the hearings, Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism toward TikTok's arguments, suggesting they may uphold the ban unless TikTok is divested from ByteDance. The case raises significant issues regarding the balance between free speech rights and national security.
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Operations cease • 25%
Acquired by Project Liberty • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Other acquisition • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
Acquisition Successful • 25%
Deal Canceled • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Acquisition Unsuccessful • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues without changes • 25%
Shut down • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Further extension granted • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Banned in U.S. • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
No change • 25%
Sale • 25%
Ban • 25%
Political resolution by Trump • 25%
No resolution • 25%
ByteDance divestment • 25%
Supreme Court decision • 25%
No resolution • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%