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What will be the outcome of TikTok's US legal efforts by January 19, 2025?
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TikTok•United States•ByteDance•Supreme Court•John Moolenaar•Raja Krishnamoorthi•Apple•Google•Chinese Communist Party
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Court rulings or official announcements from TikTok or major news outlets
Story
Lawmakers Urge Apple and Google to Remove TikTok as Appeals Court Denies Delay of January 19 Ban
Dec 13, 2024, 04:25 PM
TikTok faces a looming ban in the United States as a January 19 deadline approaches for its parent company, ByteDance, to divest the popular video-sharing app or face removal from app stores. The U.S. Justice Department has requested that the court reject TikTok's bid to delay the law that would require divestiture, and an appeals court has denied TikTok's request to temporarily halt the pending ban, paving the way for a potential Supreme Court showdown. Lawmakers, including Reps. John Moolenaar and Raja Krishnamoorthi, have urged Apple and Google to prepare to remove TikTok from their app stores if ByteDance fails to comply. The ban aims to address national security concerns over alleged ties between ByteDance and the Chinese Communist Party. TikTok is scrambling in federal court to halt the law, arguing that it would eliminate hundreds of jobs and terminate contracts.
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Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Challenges upheld • 33%
Challenges rejected • 33%
Case unresolved • 33%
TikTok wins the legal challenge • 25%
TikTok loses the legal challenge • 25%
Case is settled out of court • 25%
Case is postponed beyond January 19, 2024 • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Ban delayed, temporary reprieve • 25%
Ban overturned, TikTok operations continue • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
TikTok wins • 25%
TikTok loses and divests • 25%
TikTok loses and is banned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Law Upheld • 33%
Law Struck Down • 33%
Compromise Reached • 33%
TikTok banned • 33%
TikTok sold • 33%
No action taken • 33%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Ban is reversed by Trump • 25%
Ban is temporarily blocked by Supreme Court • 25%
Other outcome • 25%