Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of TikTok's situation with the U.S. government by January 19, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Banned • 25%
Not banned, but ByteDance divests • 25%
Not banned, no divestment • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or major news outlets
Story
Xiaohongshu, Valued at $17 Billion, Tops U.S. App Store as TikTok Users Flee Ahead of January 19 Ban
Jan 13, 2025, 04:48 PM
As the potential ban of TikTok in the U.S. looms, American users are turning to Xiaohongshu, also known as RedNote, a Chinese social media platform. Amid concerns over TikTok's ownership and national security, RedNote has surged to the top of the U.S. App Store, becoming the most downloaded free app and leading the social networking category. The migration to RedNote, often referred to as 'TikTok refugees,' is driven by the impending deadline of January 19, when TikTok could be suspended unless its parent company, ByteDance, divests the app. RedNote, which offers a mix of short-form video content, lifestyle inspiration, and social shopping features, has attracted users with its similarity to TikTok and additional functionalities akin to Instagram and Pinterest. The platform, valued at $17 billion, has seen significant growth, boasting 300 million monthly active users, 79% of whom are women. It has raised $917 million in venture funding from investors including Tencent and Alibaba, and is projected to increase its profits to over $1 billion in 2024.
View original story
Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
Continues operations without change • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban is temporarily blocked by Supreme Court • 25%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Ban is reversed by Trump • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
No decision made • 25%
Conditional operation allowed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban blocked, TikTok continues • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok shut down • 25%
TikTok sold to non-Chinese entity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok sold to US company • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
TikTok continues operations without change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. buyer • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Deal Canceled • 25%
Acquisition Unsuccessful • 25%
Acquisition Successful • 25%