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What will be the status of Turkish control in Syria by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Stable control • 25%
Partial control • 25%
Loss of control • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Reports from international organizations and news agencies
Story
Russia Withdraws from Syria, Turkey Takes Control Amid Agreement
Dec 8, 2024, 11:07 AM
Russia is reportedly withdrawing from Syria, with preparations for equipment withdrawal already underway, according to Captain Ilya Tumanov, a former Air Force pilot and one of Russia's most renowned war correspondents. Tumanov stated that Turkey has taken control of Syria without significant resistance, suggesting that an agreement has been reached between Russia and Turkey. This development marks a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the region, with the Syrian conflict seemingly coming to an end.
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Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Returned to Syrian government control • 25%
Remain under Turkish influence • 25%
Controlled by local Syrian groups • 25%
Other status • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
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Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
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Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
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No intervention • 25%
PKK/YPG regain control • 25%
Turkey gains more control • 25%
Other groups gain control • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
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Increased tensions • 25%
Increased Turkish influence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased YPG control • 25%
Increased Syrian government control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%