Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey's military action in Syria by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved governments
Story
Erdogan: End Near for PKK in Syria, Turkey Ready for Sudden Military Action
Jan 6, 2025, 04:28 PM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared that the end of Kurdish militants in Syria is approaching, following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last month. Speaking after a cabinet meeting in Ankara, Erdogan emphasized that Syria's new leadership is determined to eliminate separatists in the country. He also warned that Turkey is prepared to launch a new cross-border operation into Syria against the Kurdish militia if it feels threatened. Erdogan stated that Turkey has shown its firm commitment to its survival and security, hinting at potential military action by saying, 'we can come suddenly one night.' Additionally, Turkey's military reported having 'neutralized' 32 members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Syria.
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No intervention • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Minor PKK/YPG losses • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant PKK/YPG losses • 25%
PKK/YPG strengthens • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
Complete eradication • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Peaceful agreement reached • 25%
Military victory for Turkey • 25%
Partial success with continued PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Operation not conducted • 25%
Successful elimination of PKK/YPG presence • 25%
No significant impact on PKK/YPG presence • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Complete success • 25%