Market
How will Turkey's foreign policy in Syria change by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Official Turkish government statements or actions in Syria reported by credible news agencies
Story
Biden Lifts Sanctions on Turkey, Revises 2019 Executive Order 13894 Tied to Operation Peace Spring
Jan 17, 2025, 06:31 AM
U.S. President Joe Biden has revised an executive order originally issued in 2019 during Turkey's Peace Spring Operation in Syria, which imposed sanctions on Turkey. The updated order removes all references to Turkey, effectively lifting the sanctions and easing restrictions that had been in place since the original executive order, signed by then-President Donald Trump on October 14, 2019. The revisions also include the removal of strong rhetoric associated with the operation and the lifting of visa restrictions against Turkey.
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Cooperation with the U.S. • 25%
Elimination of PKK/YPG • 25%
Countering ISIS • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic resolution sought • 25%
Decreased military engagement • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Joint military operation • 25%
Signing a trade agreement • 25%
Resuming direct flights • 25%
Other diplomatic action • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%
Increased economic involvement • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Continued informal talks • 25%
Loss of control • 25%
Partial control • 25%
Stable control • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%