Market
Status of Syrian territories under Turkish influence by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Returned to Syrian government control • 25%
Remain under Turkish influence • 25%
Controlled by local Syrian groups • 25%
Other status • 25%
Reports from international organizations or major international news outlets
Story
Erdogan Declares New Political Reality in Syria, Amidst Assad's Rejection
Dec 7, 2024, 03:00 PM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared a new political and diplomatic reality in Syria, emphasizing that the country belongs to its diverse population and that the Syrian people will determine their own future. He stated that Turkey has no territorial ambitions in Syria and will not allow any actions that could jeopardize its national security or interests. Erdogan's comments come amidst ongoing tensions and diplomatic efforts concerning the Syrian conflict, with recent reports suggesting that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has rejected Erdogan's requests for a bilateral meeting.
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Loss of control • 25%
Partial control • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Stable control • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Coalition forces • 25%
HTS • 25%
Syrian government • 25%
Other rebel groups • 25%
Turkey gains more control • 25%
PKK/YPG regain control • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
Other groups gain control • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
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Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
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Increased opposition control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Türkiye gains control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
SDF retains control • 25%
Joint control established • 25%
Controlled by new Syrian government • 25%
Mixed control • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Controlled by foreign powers • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased Turkish influence • 25%
Increased Syrian government control • 25%
Increased YPG control • 25%
Turkey-backed forces • 25%
Other local factions • 25%
Syrian government forces • 25%
Kurdish militants • 25%
Turkish-backed forces gain control • 25%
SDF gains control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%