Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey's military intervention in Syria by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Official statements from the Turkish government and international news agencies
Story
Erdogan Warns of Military Intervention to Prevent Syria's Fragmentation
Jan 6, 2025, 04:54 PM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared that Turkey will not tolerate the fragmentation or disruption of Syria's unitary structure. He emphasized that if any risk arises in this regard, Turkey is prepared to take swift action, including military intervention if necessary, to prevent such an outcome. Erdogan's statements suggest a readiness to intervene militarily if necessary, indicating Turkey's firm stance on maintaining Syria's territorial integrity.
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Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant PKK/YPG losses • 25%
Minor PKK/YPG losses • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
PKK/YPG strengthens • 25%
Complete eradication • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%