Market
What will be the outcome of Türkiye's involvement in northern Syria by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements
Story
White House Recognizes Türkiye's Role in Syria, Ceasefire with SDF Extended to Week's End
Dec 17, 2024, 06:30 PM
The White House has acknowledged Türkiye's significant role in the future of Syria, with National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stating that Türkiye is a key actor in any outcome related to the country. The U.S. has been engaging with Türkiye at various levels, recognizing their legitimate concerns about the terrorist threat along their border with Syria. Additionally, the U.S. State Department announced that a ceasefire between Türkiye and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria has been extended until the end of the week. This extension aims to maintain peace in the region, particularly in the Manbij area, where efforts have been made to reach a ceasefire.
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Other outcome • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Minor PKK/YPG losses • 25%
Significant PKK/YPG losses • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Peaceful agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Military victory for Turkey • 25%