Market
What will be the outcome of Turkish diplomatic efforts in Syria by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official announcements from involved parties
Story
Erdoğan: Turkey Pledges Support to Syrians, Will Prevent Syria's Division and Return to Conflict
Dec 10, 2024, 11:59 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared that Turkey will not allow Syria to be divided again and will stand with the Syrian people against any attacks on Syria's stability and territorial integrity. Addressing the Syrian people directly, Erdoğan said, 'You wrote history with your blood. You have resisted and said God is great and persevered. We salute you with honour. We will support you as we did during your time of need.' He pledged that Turkey will support Syria politically, economically, militarily, and diplomatically, asserting that 'Syria belongs to the Syrians.' Erdoğan also stated that Turkey will not permit Syrian lands to become conflict zones again and will oversee the return of Syrians to their homeland. Emphasizing solidarity, he said that any attack on Syria would find both the Syrian people and Turkey opposing it.
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No significant change • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
Increased economic involvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Failed mediation • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Successful mediation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
YPG disbands and surrenders arms • 25%
YPG increases territorial control • 25%
YPG maintains current stance • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Continued informal talks • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Signing a trade agreement • 25%
Resuming direct flights • 25%
Joint military operation • 25%
Other diplomatic action • 25%