Market
What will be the outcome of Turkish influence in Syria by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and statements from involved governments
Story
Trump Praises Erdogan, Claims Turkey Behind Assad's Overthrow in Syria
Dec 16, 2024, 07:15 PM
President-elect Donald Trump praised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, describing him as a "very smart guy" and someone he "got along with great." Trump highlighted that Erdogan has built a "very strong, powerful army" that has "not been worn out with war." He stated that Turkey is behind the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government, referring to it as an "unfriendly takeover" by Turkey. Trump suggested that Turkey has "wanted it for thousands of years and he got it," indicating that Turkey will "hold the key to what happens in Syria." Emphasizing his desire to avoid American casualties, Trump remarked that he does not want U.S. soldiers "to be killed in Syria." He also described Assad as a "butcher" for his actions against children.
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Similar markets
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Loss of control • 25%
Partial control • 25%
Stable control • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Continued informal talks • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other status • 25%
Returned to Syrian government control • 25%
Remain under Turkish influence • 25%
Controlled by local Syrian groups • 25%
Increased economic involvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%