Market
What will be the outcome of US-Turkey negotiations on Syria by the end of 2025?
2
Antony Blinken•Turkish•Tayyip Erdoğan•Hakan Fidan•Ankara•Syria•Gaza•ISIS•PKK•Blinken•US•Turkey•Fidan•Hamas
Resolution / Starting Odds
Establishment of a new Syrian government • 25%
Continuation of current regime with reforms • 25%
Federalization of Syria into autonomous regions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Publicly available agreements or announcements by involved parties such as the US, Turkey, and Syrian factions
Story
Blinken Urges Turkey to Help Achieve Gaza Cease-Fire, Discusses Syria's Future with Erdoğan and Fidan
Dec 13, 2024, 08:28 AM
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara to discuss regional issues, including Syria and Gaza. The officials focused on efforts to stabilize Syria and combat terrorism, particularly the threats posed by ISIS and the PKK. Blinken noted that there is broad agreement between the US and Turkey on the desired future for Syria, emphasizing the need for a government that promotes stability, dismantles chemical weapons, and does not threaten its neighbors. Fidan stated that Turkey's priorities are to ensure stability in Syria and prevent terrorist organizations like ISIS and the PKK from gaining a foothold in the region. They discussed the possible roles of Turkey and the US in Syria's future. Blinken urged Turkey to use its influence on Hamas to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza and expressed that there are encouraging signs that a cease-fire is possible. Both sides agreed on the urgency of achieving a cease-fire. Blinken highlighted the importance of continued US-Turkish collaboration to suppress ISIS in Syria.
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Deterioration of situation • 25%
Successful stabilization • 25%
Partial stabilization • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Continued diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Agreement on de-escalation measures • 25%
Increased tensions leading to sanctions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
No Significant Outcome • 25%
New Peace Treaty • 25%
Military Withdrawal • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Joint military action • 25%
Diplomatic agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased economic involvement • 25%
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%