Market
Outcome of U.S.-Turkey discussions on Syria by May 31, 2025?
2
Syria•Separation of Forces Agreement•Benjamin Netanyahu•Israeli•Golan Heights•United Nations•United States•Jake Sullivan•Turkey•Israel
Resolution / Starting Odds
Joint military action • 25%
Diplomatic agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Statements from U.S. or Turkish government or credible news reports
Story
Israel Deploys Troops in Syrian Buffer Zone, Citing Security Concerns
Dec 12, 2024, 05:53 PM
Israeli troops have advanced into a buffer zone in Syria, established by the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement, following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office stated that the deployment is temporary and for 'strategic reasons,' aimed at preventing jihadist groups from filling the security vacuum and threatening Israeli communities in the Golan Heights. The move has drawn criticism from the United Nations for violating the ceasefire agreement, while the United States described it as an 'important temporary deployment.' Meanwhile, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has been engaging in intensive discussions with Turkey regarding the situation in Syria, emphasizing Israel's right to defend itself from security risks.
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Continued diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Agreement on de-escalation measures • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased tensions leading to sanctions • 25%
Continuation of current regime with reforms • 25%
Establishment of a new Syrian government • 25%
Federalization of Syria into autonomous regions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful stabilization • 25%
Partial stabilization • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Deterioration of situation • 25%
No Significant Outcome • 25%
Military Withdrawal • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
New Peace Treaty • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
