Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey's diplomatic efforts in Syria by December 31, 2025?
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Tayyip Erdogan•Kurdish•Syria•YPG•Syrian Democratic Forces•SDF•Syrian•Kurdish militants•Erdogan•Turkey•PKK•Iraq•Turkish•Aleppo
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Official statements from the Turkish government and international news agencies
Story
Erdogan Warns YPG Militia in Syria to Lay Down Arms or Be Buried, Plans Aleppo Consulate
Dec 25, 2024, 11:00 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned that Kurdish militants in Syria, specifically the YPG militia which is part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), must either lay down their arms or face being 'buried' in Syrian soil. This statement comes amid ongoing hostilities between Turkey-backed Syrian fighters and the Kurdish militants following the recent fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Erdogan emphasized that the Kurdish militants, whom Turkey views as part of the terrorist organization PKK and its Syrian affiliate YPG, have no place in Syria's future. He vowed to 'eradicate the terrorist organization' that he claims is attempting to create a 'wall of blood' between Turkey and its Kurdish population. Earlier, Turkey's defense ministry reported that 21 YPG-PKK militants were killed in northern Syria and Iraq. The Turkish leader also announced plans to soon open a consulate in Aleppo, anticipating increased border activity as Syrian migrants begin to return home.
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Similar markets
Partial resolution • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased economic involvement • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
Consulate opens but faces significant operational challenges • 25%
Consulate does not open • 25%
Consulate opening is delayed • 25%
Consulate opens and functions normally • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Successful mediation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Failed mediation • 25%
Economic cooperation • 25%
Diplomatic initiative • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%