Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey-Syria diplomatic efforts by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Official statements or agreements published by Turkish or Syrian governments
Story
Turkey Reopens Damascus Embassy on Saturday, Aims to Address YPG Threat
Dec 13, 2024, 07:21 PM
Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced that the Turkish Embassy in Damascus will reopen on Saturday, December 14, 2024, marking the first time since 2012 that the embassy will resume operations. This decision follows a period of strained relations due to the Syrian civil war. Fidan emphasized Turkey's desire for a Syria free of terrorism and inclusive governance. He also mentioned that the number of Syrians in Turkey returning to their homeland is expected to increase as stability returns to Syria. The move to reopen the embassy is part of Turkey's broader strategy to engage with the new Syrian government and address issues like terrorism and the presence of the YPG, which Turkey considers a strategic threat.
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Formal agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
Increased economic involvement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
Failed mediation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Successful mediation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Continued informal talks • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Full normalization • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Partial normalization • 25%
No change • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Continuation of current regime with reforms • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Federalization of Syria into autonomous regions • 25%
Establishment of a new Syrian government • 25%
Resuming direct flights • 25%
Other diplomatic action • 25%
Joint military operation • 25%
Signing a trade agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%