Market
Outcome of Turkey-Syria diplomatic negotiations by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Turkish or Syrian government or major international news outlets
Story
Erdogan Declares New Political Reality in Syria, Amidst Assad's Rejection
Dec 7, 2024, 03:00 PM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared a new political and diplomatic reality in Syria, emphasizing that the country belongs to its diverse population and that the Syrian people will determine their own future. He stated that Turkey has no territorial ambitions in Syria and will not allow any actions that could jeopardize its national security or interests. Erdogan's comments come amidst ongoing tensions and diplomatic efforts concerning the Syrian conflict, with recent reports suggesting that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has rejected Erdogan's requests for a bilateral meeting.
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No significant change • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued informal talks • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Establishment of a new Syrian government • 25%
Continuation of current regime with reforms • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Federalization of Syria into autonomous regions • 25%
No change • 25%
Full normalization • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Partial normalization • 25%
Increased economic involvement • 25%
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
Successful mediation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Failed mediation • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Resuming direct flights • 25%
Signing a trade agreement • 25%
Joint military operation • 25%
Other diplomatic action • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Cultural exchange program initiation • 25%
Joint military cooperation announcement • 25%
Signing of a trade agreement • 25%
Other • 25%