Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey-U.S. talks on Syria by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement on de-escalation measures • 25%
Continued diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Increased tensions leading to sanctions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the Turkish or U.S. government
Story
Turkey's FM Fidan Discusses Syria with Blinken, Accuses U.S. of Backing Terrorists
Dec 1, 2024, 12:03 PM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced that Turkey is not involved in the ongoing clashes in Aleppo, Syria, but is taking precautionary measures to prevent any actions that could lead to increased instability or trigger a new wave of migration. Fidan stated that "the lifeline of terrorist groups in the region lies in the hands of the United States. Without U.S. support, they cannot survive." He emphasized that Ankara will not allow terrorist threats targeting its security or Syrian civilians. In a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Fidan reiterated Turkey's opposition to developments that could escalate tensions in the region and underscored Turkey's support for efforts to reduce tensions in Syria.
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No agreement reached • 25%
Joint military action • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Diplomatic agreement • 25%
Establishment of a new Syrian government • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Continuation of current regime with reforms • 25%
Federalization of Syria into autonomous regions • 25%
Partial stabilization • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Deterioration of situation • 25%
Successful stabilization • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
YPG does not disband, military operation initiated • 25%
YPG disbands • 25%
Negotiations lead to a compromise • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Military operation conducted • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%