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What will be the outcome of Turkey-Syria negotiations on PKK/YPG by Dec 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from Turkey and Syria, or credible reports from international media
Story
Turkey's Fidan Tells Blinken: No PKK/YPG in Syria, Urges Syrian Stability
Dec 28, 2024, 03:41 PM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, emphasizing that Turkey will not permit the PKK/YPG terrorist organization to shelter in Syria. Fidan underlined the importance of collaborating with Syria's new administration to ensure stability and complete the transition period in an orderly manner. The U.S. Department of State confirmed that Blinken and Fidan discussed the shared goal of preventing terrorism from jeopardizing the security of both Turkey and Syria, and emphasized the need to support a Syrian-led political process.
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Increased PKK/YPG activities • 25%
Significant reduction of PKK/YPG activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful elimination of PKK/YPG presence • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
PKK/YPG partially disarms • 25%
PKK/YPG refuses to disarm • 25%
PKK/YPG disarms completely • 25%
Military victory for Turkey • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peaceful agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
Military operation conducted • 25%
PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
No success • 25%
Establishment of a new Syrian government • 25%
Continuation of current regime with reforms • 25%
Federalization of Syria into autonomous regions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%
PKK/YPG gains strength • 25%
Partial reduction • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
YPG disbanded • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Negotiations lead to a compromise • 25%
YPG does not disband, military operation initiated • 25%
YPG disbands • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Partial success • 25%