Market
What will be the primary outcome of Turkey's diplomatic efforts in Syria by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%
Increased economic involvement • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Analysis from international relations experts and major news outlets
Story
Erdogan Announces Turkey's Plan to Open Consulate in Aleppo to Aid Syria's $500 Billion Reconstruction
Dec 25, 2024, 10:26 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey will soon open a consulate general in Aleppo, Syria. This move is part of Turkey's broader strategy to enhance its diplomatic and economic support for Syria's reconstruction, focusing on sectors such as energy, education, health care, security, and trade. Erdogan emphasized Turkey's commitment to assisting Syria, highlighting the country's efforts in reopening its embassy in Damascus and supporting the new Syrian leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa. The announcement comes amidst ongoing efforts to stabilize the region and support Syria's recovery from war-related damages, estimated at $500 billion by the United Nations.
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Peace agreement signed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
Cooperation with the U.S. • 25%
Elimination of PKK/YPG • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Countering ISIS • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Resuming direct flights • 25%
Joint military operation • 25%
Other diplomatic action • 25%
Signing a trade agreement • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Continued informal talks • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful mediation • 25%
Failed mediation • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%