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Outcome of Turkey's engagement with Syria by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Continued informal talks • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official statements from Turkish and Syrian governments and reputable international news agencies
Story
Turkish Foreign Minister Meets New Syrian Leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus
Dec 22, 2024, 12:11 PM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan arrived in Damascus to meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the new Syrian administration. The meeting, which took place at the Presidential Palace in Damascus, follows Fidan's earlier announcement of his plans to engage with the new Syrian leadership.
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Formal agreement reached • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Economic aid packages • 25%
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Increased economic involvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%