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Outcome of Turkey's military actions in northern Syria by July 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official statements from Turkey's Ministry of Defense or credible international news agencies
Story
Turkey's Defense Ministry Vows to Prevent PKK/YPG Exploiting Instability Amid Aleppo Opposition Activities
Dec 5, 2024, 09:36 AM
Turkey's Ministry of Defense has declared that it will not permit the PKK/YPG terrorist organizations to exploit instability in Syria, highlighting that these groups pose a serious threat to Syria's territorial integrity and regional security. The Ministry stated that Turkish forces are taking all necessary measures to maintain stability in the region and are closely coordinating with regional counterparts. Turkey is closely following the activities initiated by opposition groups in the Aleppo region. Turkey affirmed its commitment to agreements in northern Syria's operational zones and expects the same from others. Additionally, the Ministry indicated that the ongoing crisis in Syria stems from the Syrian regime's neglect of the opposition's demands and that clashes have resumed in northern Syria since last week.
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Increased territorial control • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Significant PKK/YPG losses • 25%
Other • 25%
Minor PKK/YPG losses • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Significant decrease in PKK presence • 25%
Increase in PKK presence • 25%
No change in PKK presence • 25%
Moderate decrease in PKK presence • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Military victory for Turkey • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Peaceful agreement reached • 25%
SDF regains control • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%