Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey's military operations against PKK/YPG in Syria by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete eradication • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
PKK/YPG strengthens • 25%
Reports from Turkish government, independent international observers, and news agencies
Story
Turkey Says Eradication of PKK/YPG Imminent; Warns Against Strengthening PKK Under ISIS Pretext
Jan 6, 2025, 12:00 PM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced that the eradication of the PKK/YPG terror group in Syria is imminent. "We think that eliminating the PKK/YPG issue in Syria is a matter of time," Fidan said. He declared that Turkey will not allow the PKK to gain strength under the pretext of fighting ISIS and will not agree to any policy that allows the YPG to maintain a presence in Syria. He warned Western countries against supporting the group for other aims. Fidan stated that the "empire of violence" the PKK has built by exploiting the noble sentiments of Kurdish people is on the verge of collapsing. He urged the PKK/YPG to lay down their arms and leave Syria as soon as possible.
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Similar markets
Successful elimination of PKK/YPG presence • 25%
Operation not conducted • 25%
Partial success with continued PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant impact on PKK/YPG presence • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
No success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%
PKK/YPG gains strength • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Partial reduction • 25%
Partial elimination • 25%
YPG strengthens • 25%
No significant change • 25%
YPG fully eliminated • 25%
All Eliminated • 25%
Increased Presence • 25%
None Eliminated • 25%
Some Eliminated • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Partial reduction of YPG presence • 25%
Complete eradication of YPG presence • 25%
No significant change in YPG presence • 25%
Increased YPG presence • 25%
Military operation conducted • 25%
PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
Peaceful agreement reached • 25%
Military victory for Turkey • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%