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Outcome of Turkey's military involvement in northern Syria by December 2025?
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Turkish National Intelligence Organization•MIT•Yayla Kızılkaya•Nesrin Amed•Qamishli•Syria•Kızılkaya•Jazira•Syrian Democratic Forces•SDF•Turkey
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased territorial control • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Reports from international organizations and credible news sources
Story
Turkey's MIT Neutralizes PKK Commander Nesrin Amed, Also Known as Yayla Kızılkaya, in Qamishli, Syria
Dec 19, 2024, 07:06 AM
The Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT) has neutralized Yayla Kızılkaya, also known by the codename Nesrin Amed, in a targeted operation in Qamishli, Syria. Kızılkaya was identified as a key figure within the PKK/PAJK, serving as the commander for the Jazira region and responsible for the management of the group's female cadres. The operation has drawn attention amid ongoing tensions in northern Syria, with accusations from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against Turkey and its affiliated groups for violating ceasefire agreements in the region.
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Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
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Complete success with full control established • 25%
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Ceasefire reached • 25%
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No intervention • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
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Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
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Other • 25%
Significant PKK/YPG losses • 25%
Minor PKK/YPG losses • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
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Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
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Military victory for Turkey • 25%
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Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Peaceful agreement reached • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
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Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
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Peace agreement • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
SDF regains control • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
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Continued informal talks • 25%