Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey's involvement in Idlib by June 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military presence • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Reports from international observers and news agencies
Story
Erdogan Declares New Political Reality in Syria, Emphasizes Turkey's 910 km Border and 13 Years of Conflict
Dec 7, 2024, 03:01 PM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan addressed the ongoing situation in Syria during a speech at the AK Party's Gaziantep congress. He emphasized a new political and diplomatic reality in Syria, asserting that the future of the country should be determined by the Syrian people themselves. Erdoğan stated that Turkey has no territorial ambitions, declaring, "We do not look at anyone's territory, not even a pebble." He reiterated Turkey's commitment to national security, asserting that no actions threatening Turkey's security would be tolerated, particularly in light of the ongoing violence in Syria. Erdoğan also expressed a desire for peace in Syria, which has been mired in conflict for 13 years, stating that the Syrian people deserve freedom and security. He highlighted the importance of addressing the threats posed by terrorist organizations, acknowledging their attempts to exploit the situation. Erdoğan's comments come amid escalating tensions and attacks in regions like Idlib, which he described as a tipping point for Turkey's involvement in the conflict.
View original story
Similar markets
Status quo remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Success in preventing fragmentation • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure to achieve goals • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Operation leads to significant international backlash • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Successful operation with Turkish control • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Turkey establishes a friendly government in Syria • 25%
Continued military presence without government change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Minor PKK/YPG losses • 25%
Significant PKK/YPG losses • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Turkey withdraws influence from Syria • 25%
Turkey strengthens control in Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Withdrawal from contested areas • 25%
Minor skirmishes, no significant change • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%