Market
What will be the outcome of potential military conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the US by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
No conflict occurs • 25%
Limited skirmish • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Reports from major international news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, or CNN
Story
Iran's Araghchi Warns Israel and US: Attack on Nuclear Facilities Would Trigger Immediate, Decisive Response
Jan 28, 2025, 07:19 AM
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned that any attack by Israel or the United States on Iran's nuclear facilities would be met with an immediate and decisive response, describing such an action as 'crazy' and predicting it would lead to a 'very bad disaster' for the region. The statement was made in an exclusive interview with Sky News, marking the first such interview since the inauguration of Donald Trump. Araghchi expressed skepticism about the feasibility of such an attack, suggesting that the consequences would be too severe for the region. He also indicated Iran's willingness to listen to President Trump regarding a new nuclear deal, but stressed that rebuilding trust would be necessary due to past experiences.
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No conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Resolution through diplomacy • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
De-escalation without resolution • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Comprehensive Peace Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant escalation • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Both Israel and U.S. strike • 25%
Only Israel strikes • 25%
Only U.S. strikes • 25%
No military action • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Limited airstrikes • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
No intervention • 25%
No military action • 25%
Other • 25%
Full-scale military intervention • 25%
Limited strikes • 25%
Tri-party agreement reached • 25%
No significant diplomatic progress • 25%
Iran-US talks initiated • 25%
Iran-Israel talks initiated • 25%
Strike occurs and is successful • 25%
Strike occurs but is unsuccessful • 25%
Strike is canceled • 25%
Strike is postponed indefinitely • 25%