Market
What will be the outcome of US-Iran nuclear tensions by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Military action taken • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official diplomatic announcements and credible news reports
Story
Biden Discussed Potential Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Facilities Before January 20, No Decision Made
Jan 2, 2025, 08:30 PM
President Joe Biden discussed potential military options for striking Iran's nuclear facilities if Tehran advances toward a nuclear weapon before January 20, according to Axios, citing three sources. The discussions took place in a meeting about a month ago, led by White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. The meeting was part of 'prudent scenario planning' and did not result in any immediate decision for a strike. Sullivan presented various options and scenarios, but Biden did not authorize any military action. The discussions were not prompted by new intelligence, and there are currently no active discussions within the White House about military action against Iran's nuclear facilities. Some of Biden's top aides believe that the acceleration of Iran's nuclear program and the weakening of Iran and its proxies in their conflict with Israel provide both a justification and an opportunity for a strike. However, Sullivan did not make any recommendations to Biden, focusing instead on scenario planning.
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Status quo maintained • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions without conflict • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran develops nuclear weapon • 25%
US conducts military strike • 25%
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Worsened Relations • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
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Military Conflict • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
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Status Quo • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
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Military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic agreement • 25%
Comprehensive agreement • 25%
Negotiations with no agreement • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
De-escalation without resolution • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Resolution through diplomacy • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
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New nuclear agreement • 25%
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Successful agreement • 25%
No talks held • 25%
Talks initiated but stalled • 25%
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No response by deadline • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks initiated • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
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Other • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%