Market
What will be the outcome of military tensions in the Persian Gulf involving Iran, the US, and Israel by the end of 2025?
2
Iran•Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps•Persian Gulf•United States•Israel•Donald Trump•IRGC•Hossein Salami
Resolution / Starting Odds
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Resolution through diplomacy • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
De-escalation without resolution • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from the involved countries
Story
IRGC Navy Unveils 500-Meter Deep Underground Base with Missile-Equipped Boats Amid US, Israel Tensions
Jan 19, 2025, 01:00 AM
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy has unveiled a new underground naval base at an undisclosed location in the Persian Gulf, showcasing its strategic military capabilities. The base, located 500 meters below the surface, houses dozens of missile-equipped assault boats designed to launch long-range missiles and conduct distant warfare. This unveiling comes amid rising tensions with the United States and Israel, just two days before the start of Donald Trump's second term as president. IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami visited the base during ongoing war games, emphasizing its role in enhancing Iran's naval defense and deterrence in the region. The facility is part of a broader network of underground complexes aimed at protecting Iran's naval assets from potential airstrikes and bolstering its asymmetric warfare strategy.
View original story
Similar markets
Other outcomes • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant escalation • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Comprehensive Peace Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased sanctions without conflict • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Diplomatic agreement • 25%
Only Israel strikes • 25%
Both Israel and U.S. strike • 25%
No military action • 25%
Only U.S. strikes • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Comprehensive agreement • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Negotiations with no agreement • 25%
Limited airstrikes • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
Iran develops nuclear weapon • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
US conducts military strike • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Increase in nuclear development • 25%
No significant response • 25%