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What will be the outcome of potential military action against Iran's nuclear facilities by July 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No military action • 25%
Limited strikes • 25%
Full-scale military intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
News reports from credible international news agencies
Story
Iran's Uranium Enrichment Capacity Surges Amid U.S. Intelligence Warning
Dec 6, 2024, 03:04 PM
Iran has significantly ramped up its uranium enrichment activities, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reporting a dramatic increase in the production of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% needed for weapons-grade material. Rafael Grossi, the IAEA's director-general, stated that Iran's enrichment capacity could increase by seven to eight times or even more from the previous rate of 5-7 kg per month. This escalation comes in response to diplomatic and military pressures, including attacks and sanctions, as well as an intelligence assessment from the U.S. suggesting Iran could produce enough material for 12 nuclear bombs if it further enriches its current uranium stockpiles. Iran has also begun feeding uranium enriched to up to 20% into two interconnected cascades at Fordow, aiming to raise its purity to 60%.
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Both Israel and U.S. strike • 25%
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