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Outcome of potential military intervention involving Iran by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
No intervention • 25%
Limited airstrikes • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Major international news agencies and government announcements
Story
IAEA Reports Dramatic Surge in Iran's Uranium Enrichment, Nearing Weapons-Grade
Dec 6, 2024, 01:25 PM
Iran has significantly ramped up its uranium enrichment capabilities, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The IAEA's Director-General Rafael Grossi announced a dramatic increase in Iran's production of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to weapons-grade. Previously, Iran was producing uranium at a rate of around 5-7 kilograms per month, but Grossi indicated that this could now increase by seven to eight times or even more. This development comes amidst Iran's response to its diplomatic and military challenges in Syria, Lebanon, and its nuclear file. The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence has also revealed that if Iran continues with its expected uranium enrichment, it could produce enough material for 12 nuclear bombs.
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No military action • 25%
Both Israel and U.S. strike • 25%
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