Market
What will be the outcome of military actions involving Iran and Israel by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%
Credible reporting from major international news organizations
Story
Trump Weighs Preemptive Strikes on Iran Amid Fears of Nuclear Breakout
Dec 13, 2024, 05:23 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is actively considering aggressive measures to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear weapons program, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal. Options under consideration include preemptive airstrikes and the potential transfer of "bunker-buster" bombs to Israel, marking a potential shift from the longstanding U.S. policy of containing Tehran through diplomacy and sanctions. Trump's advisers are concerned that economic pressure alone may not be sufficient to halt Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Trump has expressed concern that Iran might achieve nuclear capability during his term. In response to a question from Time Magazine about the possibility of war with Iran, Trump stated that "anything is possible."
View original story
Similar markets
Only U.S. strikes • 25%
Both Israel and U.S. strike • 25%
Only Israel strikes • 25%
No military action • 25%
Partial victory with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Significant setbacks for Israel • 25%
Stalemate with no clear victor • 25%
Complete victory over Iran and proxies • 25%
Successful strikes with no retaliation • 25%
Successful strikes with Iranian retaliation • 25%
No strikes conducted • 25%
Unsuccessful strikes • 25%
Limited airstrikes • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No intervention • 25%
No military action • 25%
Other • 25%
Full-scale military intervention • 25%
Limited strikes • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Air strikes on Iranian targets • 25%
Naval blockade • 25%
No military action • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
No significant escalation • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
De-escalation without resolution • 25%
Resolution through diplomacy • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant Houthi retreat • 25%
Increased Houthi aggression • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Naval confrontation • 25%
Missile strike • 25%
Another plane interception • 25%
No significant action • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Successful attack with Iranian retaliation • 25%
Successful attack with no retaliation • 25%
Unsuccessful attack • 25%