Market
What will be the outcome of potential military conflict involving Iran, US, and Israel by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
No conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Official military reports; credible news reports
Story
Iran's Araghchi Warns US, Israel of Immediate, Decisive Response to Nuclear Attack
Jan 28, 2025, 08:07 AM
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned that any attack by the US or Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities would be met with an immediate and decisive response, describing such an action as 'crazy' and predicting it would lead to a 'very bad disaster' for the region. Araghchi's comments were made in an exclusive interview with Sky News, where he also expressed skepticism about the possibility of negotiating a new nuclear deal with the US, stating that much more than just a 'nice' statement would be required to rebuild trust. He further mocked US President Donald Trump's proposal to 'clean out' Palestinians from Gaza, suggesting instead that Israelis be sent to Greenland. Araghchi also noted that despite setbacks, Iran's allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, are rebuilding themselves, emphasizing their ideological resilience.
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Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
No conflict occurs • 25%
Limited skirmish • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Resolution through diplomacy • 25%
De-escalation without resolution • 25%
No military action • 25%
Full-scale military intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Limited strikes • 25%
Both Israel and U.S. strike • 25%
No military action • 25%
Only Israel strikes • 25%
Only U.S. strikes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
Limited airstrikes • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Unsuccessful attack • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Successful attack with Iranian retaliation • 25%
Successful attack with no retaliation • 25%
