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What will be the outcome of Israel's planned strike on Iran by the end of 2025?
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Asif William Rahman•CIA•Top Secret•Sensitive Compartmented Information•Israel•Iran•Rahman•Phnom Penh•Cambodia•Israeli attack
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strike occurs and is successful • 25%
Strike occurs but is unsuccessful • 25%
Strike is postponed indefinitely • 25%
Strike is canceled • 25%
International news agencies and official government statements
Story
Asif William Rahman Pleads Guilty to Leaking Classified Israeli Strike Plans on Iran, Faces Up to 10 Years
Jan 17, 2025, 06:54 PM
Asif William Rahman, a former CIA analyst who worked at the agency since 2016 and held a Top Secret clearance with access to Sensitive Compartmented Information, has pleaded guilty to leaking highly classified documents detailing Israel's military preparations for a retaliatory strike on Iran. The documents, which Rahman accessed and printed on October 17, 2024, were subsequently posted on social media platforms. Rahman, stationed at the U.S. Embassy in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, admitted to transmitting the information to individuals not authorized to receive it. His actions led to the delay of the Israeli attack. Following the leak, Rahman deleted approximately 1.5 gigabytes of data from his personal folder in the Top Secret system and was arrested in Cambodia. He faces up to 10 years in prison for two counts of willful retention and transmission of classified information related to national defense, with sentencing scheduled for May 15, 2025.
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Strike called off • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Strike executed successfully • 25%
Strike delayed beyond 2025 • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Successful attack with Iranian retaliation • 25%
Successful attack with no retaliation • 25%
Unsuccessful attack • 25%
Strike postponed • 25%
Strike approved • 25%
No decision • 25%
Strike rejected • 25%
No strikes conducted • 25%
Successful strikes with no retaliation • 25%
Unsuccessful strikes • 25%
Successful strikes with Iranian retaliation • 25%
Carried out as planned • 25%
Modified • 25%
Delayed further • 25%
Cancelled • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
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No significant response • 25%
Support by NATO • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%