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What will be the outcome of potential military actions involving Iran's nuclear facilities by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No military action • 25%
Only Israel strikes • 25%
Only U.S. strikes • 25%
Both Israel and U.S. strike • 25%
Reports from international news agencies, official government statements from involved countries
Story
After November Meeting, Israeli Minister Ron Dermer Believes Trump Will Support Military Action Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities
Jan 6, 2025, 03:09 PM
Following a meeting in November, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer reportedly concluded that U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to support or even initiate a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. This assessment, based on information from Axios and two unnamed sources, suggests that Trump may back an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) operation or order a U.S. strike. Dermer's impressions were shaped by discussions held at Mar-a-Lago, where the potential for military action against Iran's nuclear program was a focal point. Analysts note that Israel possesses various capabilities to target Iran's nuclear infrastructure if it chooses to proceed with such an operation.
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Full-scale military intervention • 25%
No military action • 25%
Other • 25%
Limited strikes • 25%
No strikes conducted • 25%
Successful strikes with no retaliation • 25%
Unsuccessful strikes • 25%
Successful strikes with Iranian retaliation • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Limited airstrikes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
No intervention • 25%
Unsuccessful attack • 25%
Successful attack with no retaliation • 25%
Successful attack with Iranian retaliation • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New sanctions imposed on Iran • 25%
Military intervention occurs • 25%
Iran complies with nuclear deal terms • 25%
Major incidents reported • 25%
Minor incidents reported • 25%
Successful with no incidents • 25%
Cancelled or postponed • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Successful hostage release • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military action • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Air strikes on Iranian targets • 25%
No military action • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Naval blockade • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
Increased military readiness • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%