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What will be the outcome of TikTok's First Amendment challenge by January 19, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Challenge successful, ban overturned • 25%
Challenge unsuccessful, ban upheld • 25%
Partial success, ban delayed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court decision announcements and major news outlets.
Story
Supreme Court Poised to Uphold TikTok Ban Over National Security Concerns Unless Sold by Jan. 19
Jan 10, 2025, 05:24 PM
On January 9-10, 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments over a law passed in April 2024 that could ban TikTok in the United States unless it is sold by its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, by January 19. TikTok, which has approximately 170 million U.S. users, argues that the law violates the First Amendment rights of American users. The law, citing national security concerns over potential access to American user data by the Chinese government, would prohibit app stores from offering TikTok and bar internet hosting services from hosting the app if TikTok isn't sold to an approved buyer. TikTok announced it plans to shut down its U.S. operations on January 19 unless the Supreme Court strikes down or delays the law requiring its sale. During the hearings, Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism toward TikTok's arguments, suggesting they may uphold the ban unless TikTok is divested from ByteDance. The case raises significant issues regarding the balance between free speech rights and national security.
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First Amendment challenge succeeds • 25%
First Amendment challenge fails • 25%
Case dismissed on other grounds • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%
First Amendment rejected • 25%
First Amendment upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Ban delayed, temporary reprieve • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ban overturned, TikTok operations continue • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
Appeal Granted • 25%
Appeal Denied • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Appeal denied • 25%
Appeal upheld • 25%
No decision by deadline • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
TikTok ban upheld • 25%
Case postponed • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
TikTok ban overturned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial relief granted • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
TikTok wins the challenge • 25%
Case delayed past January 19, 2025 • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
TikTok loses the challenge • 25%
Ban Upheld • 25%
Appeal Granted • 33%
Ban Overturned • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Appeal Denied • 33%
No Ruling by Deadline • 34%
Other Outcome • 25%