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Market
What will be the outcome of ByteDance's TikTok divestment by January 19, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance, the purchasing company, or the U.S. government
Story
U.S. Court Unanimously Upholds TikTok Ban; ByteDance Must Sell by Jan. 19 or Face Ban
Dec 6, 2024, 04:00 PM
On December 6, 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit unanimously upheld a law requiring TikTok's Chinese parent company ByteDance to divest its ownership of the popular short video app in the United States by January 19, 2025, or face a ban. The legislation, passed by Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden in April, aims to address national security concerns over TikTok's Chinese ownership. With 170 million U.S. users, TikTok faces a potential nationwide ban if ByteDance fails to sell the platform to a non-Chinese company by the deadline. The court's decision affirms the constitutionality of the law, allowing the U.S. government to take action to protect national interests. The President has the authority to grant a 90-day extension if there is progress toward divestment.
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Divestment completed • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
No action taken • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
ByteDance sells to a US company • 25%
ByteDance sells to a non-US company • 25%
ByteDance does not sell • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Divestiture announced but not completed • 25%
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Legal challenge delaying divestiture • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
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Complete divestment • 25%
Partial divestment • 25%
No divestment • 25%
Extension granted • 25%
Divestment Completed • 25%
Divestment Announced • 25%
No Divestment • 25%
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Divested to US company • 25%
Divested to non-US company • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
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Divested to a US-based company • 25%
Divested to a non-US-based company • 25%
Remains under ByteDance ownership • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S. company • 25%
Remains under current ownership • 25%
Operations cease in U.S. • 25%
Supreme Court blocks order • 25%
Supreme Court upholds order • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%