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What will be the outcome of TikTok's U.S. operations by April 19, 2025, if extension is granted?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
Further extension granted • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance, the purchasing company, or the U.S. government
Story
U.S. Court Unanimously Upholds TikTok Ban; ByteDance Must Sell by Jan. 19 or Face Ban
Dec 6, 2024, 04:00 PM
On December 6, 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit unanimously upheld a law requiring TikTok's Chinese parent company ByteDance to divest its ownership of the popular short video app in the United States by January 19, 2025, or face a ban. The legislation, passed by Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden in April, aims to address national security concerns over TikTok's Chinese ownership. With 170 million U.S. users, TikTok faces a potential nationwide ban if ByteDance fails to sell the platform to a non-Chinese company by the deadline. The court's decision affirms the constitutionality of the law, allowing the U.S. government to take action to protect national interests. The President has the authority to grant a 90-day extension if there is progress toward divestment.
View original story
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ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
Banned in U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S. company • 25%
Remains under current ownership • 25%
Operations cease in U.S. • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
No action taken • 25%
TikTok operations restricted • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Banned • 25%
Restricted but not banned • 25%
No change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. buyer • 25%
TikTok continues operations without change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban halted, TikTok remains under current ownership • 25%
Ban halted, TikTok secures new non-China-based owner • 25%
Ban enforced, TikTok exits U.S. market • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Fully operational with new owner • 25%
Operational under current ownership • 25%
Partially operational with restrictions • 25%
Not operational • 25%
TikTok banned • 33%
TikTok sold to a US company • 33%
TikTok continues without changes • 33%