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What will be the outcome of TikTok's negotiations with the U.S. government by April 2025?
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TikTok•United States•ByteDance•China•Supreme Court•Donald Trump•American•CapCut•Lemon8•Lark•MARVEL SNAP•Trump•First Amendment
Resolution / Starting Odds
50% U.S. ownership joint venture • 25%
Complete sale to a U.S. entity • 25%
Continued operation under current ownership • 25%
Other agreement • 25%
Official announcements from TikTok or the U.S. government, news reports
Story
TikTok Resumes Service for 170 Million U.S. Users After Trump's 90-Day Delay Intervention
Jan 19, 2025, 06:05 PM
TikTok has resumed service in the United States after being offline for 14 hours due to a federal ban. The app's parent company, ByteDance, faced the ban due to concerns over its data collection practices and ties to China, which was upheld by the Supreme Court. President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to issue an executive order on Monday to delay the ban by 90 days, providing the necessary clarity and assurance to service providers. This allowed TikTok to restore access to its over 170 million American users and support more than 7 million small businesses. Other ByteDance-linked apps such as CapCut, Lemon8, Lark, and MARVEL SNAP were also affected. TikTok expressed gratitude towards Trump for his commitment to First Amendment rights and opposition to arbitrary censorship, and indicated a willingness to work with him on a long-term solution to keep TikTok operational in the U.S. Trump has suggested a potential solution involving a 50% U.S. ownership in a joint venture with TikTok's current or new owners.
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Similar markets
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Negotiated Sale • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
Faced Ban • 25%
Addressed Security Concerns • 25%
No change • 25%
Ban implemented • 25%
Sale to US company • 25%
Partnership with US company • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Banned • 25%
Not banned, but ByteDance divests • 25%
Not banned, no divestment • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Temporary extension granted • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok sold to non-Chinese entity • 25%
No change, TikTok operates as is • 25%
Extension granted, TikTok operates • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Deal finalized • 25%
90-day extension granted • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 34%
No resolution • 33%
Resolution reached • 33%
Remains banned • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Operations resumed under ByteDance • 25%
TikTok is banned in the U.S. • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues operations • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Extension granted for divestment • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Other • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%