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What will be the outcome of TikTok's political resolution efforts with the U.S. by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolution reached • 33%
No resolution • 33%
Ongoing negotiations • 34%
Official announcements from TikTok or U.S. government
Story
U.S. DOJ Urges Supreme Court to Reject Trump's Request to Delay TikTok Ban by ByteDance on January 19
Jan 4, 2025, 03:33 PM
The U.S. Department of Justice has urged the Supreme Court to reject President-elect Donald Trump's request to delay the implementation of a law that would ban TikTok in the U.S. or force its sale by its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, by January 19. The law, passed in April, requires ByteDance to divest TikTok's U.S. assets or face a ban. Trump, who previously attempted to ban TikTok during his first term, now seeks a delay to allow his incoming administration to pursue a 'political resolution' to the issue. The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments on the case on January 10. TikTok has argued that the law violates the First Amendment, while the U.S. government maintains that the platform poses a national security risk due to its Chinese ownership and its 170 million U.S. users. In a brief written by Trump's pick for solicitor general, Trump called the First Amendment implications of a TikTok ban 'sweeping and troubling.'
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Similar markets
Ban TikTok • 25%
Regulation • 25%
Ban • 25%
No action • 25%
Other • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Impose restrictions • 25%
Legislative amendment to existing law • 25%
Other political resolution • 25%
No deal, ban enforced • 25%
Negotiated deal with Trump administration • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
No change • 25%
Ban suspended • 25%
Ban lifted permanently • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
ByteDance divests • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Acquisition Successful • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Deal Canceled • 25%
Acquisition Unsuccessful • 25%
No change • 25%
Ban • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Sale • 25%
Operational changes without sale • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Sold to non-Chinese company • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Operates under U.S. subsidiary • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
Further extension granted • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. buyer • 25%
TikTok continues operations without change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%