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Market
What will be the outcome of TikTok's status in the U.S. by April 20, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Extension granted, TikTok operates • 25%
TikTok sold to non-Chinese entity • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
No change, TikTok operates as is • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or ByteDance
Story
President-elect Trump to Grant TikTok 90-Day Extension Before Midnight Ban
Jan 18, 2025, 08:32 PM
President-elect Donald Trump said on Saturday that he will 'most likely' grant TikTok a 90-day extension to avoid a U.S. ban once he takes office on Monday, January 20th. The ban was set to take effect at midnight after the Supreme Court recently upheld a federal ban on the app due to national security concerns. The extension would give TikTok's parent company ByteDance additional time to work out a deal, potentially by selling the platform to a non-Chinese buyer, allowing the popular video-sharing app to continue operating in the United States. Trump remarked that 'the 90-day extension is something that will be most likely done, because it’s appropriate.'
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Addressed Security Concerns • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
Faced Ban • 25%
Negotiated Sale • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok remains available with ByteDance divestment • 25%
TikTok remains available without ByteDance divestment • 25%
Sold to U.S. Entity • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Operations continue as is • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues in the U.S. • 25%
Temporary extension granted • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Biden administration assures non-enforcement • 25%
TikTok shuts down • 25%
Service providers continue support • 25%
TikTok banned in the US • 25%
TikTok remains available without changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Divested • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Banned • 25%
TikTok available with ByteDance divestment • 25%
Remains operational without changes • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Operational under new ownership • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Continues operations without changes • 25%
Sold to another company • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok continues operations without change • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. buyer • 25%
Banned • 25%
Not banned, but ByteDance divests • 25%
Not banned, no divestment • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok remains available without changes • 25%
TikTok remains available under new ownership • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%