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What will be the outcome of TikTok's U.S. operations by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Operations resumed under ByteDance • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance, Elon Musk, or U.S. government; major news outlets
Story
China Weighs Elon Musk, Xi's Approval for TikTok U.S. Sale Amid Ban
Jan 19, 2025, 03:59 AM
Chinese officials are reportedly considering a plan to allow Elon Musk to acquire TikTok's U.S. operations as a potential solution to prevent the app from being banned in the United States. The ban, which took effect following a U.S. Senate-passed law, requires TikTok's parent company ByteDance to sell its U.S. operations or face a complete prohibition. ByteDance, valued at $300 billion and founded in 2012, has challenged the legislation but was unsuccessful in overturning it. The ban has already removed TikTok from app stores in the U.S., cutting off access for approximately 170 million American users, which represent 11% of TikTok's global user base. The Chinese government sees Musk as a favorable option due to his perceived alignment with Chinese interests, and Xi Jinping's approval would be necessary for any sale. Musk has publicly opposed a TikTok ban, citing concerns over freedom of speech, but also pointed out the imbalance of TikTok being allowed in the U.S. while his platform, X, is banned in China. The ban is expected to significantly impact ByteDance's revenue, and discussions about Musk's potential acquisition remain ongoing. President Trump has suggested he might grant TikTok a 90-day extension to find a buyer.
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Remains banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Resumes operations • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Other • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
TikTok is banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Extension granted for divestment • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues operations • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Continues operations without change • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Continues with restrictions • 25%
Complete ban • 25%
Acquired by U.S. entity • 25%
Unrestricted operations • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
TikTok sold to US company • 25%
Acquired by Kevin O'Leary • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Banned and inaccessible • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Not sold and banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to another non-Chinese entity • 25%
Sold to Kevin O'Leary • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok remains shut down in the U.S. • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok resumes operations under new ownership • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other status • 25%
Banned • 25%
Partially restricted • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Sold to another company • 25%
Operations ceased • 25%
Under new joint venture • 25%
TikTok divested to a U.S. company • 25%
TikTok remains banned • 25%
TikTok resumes operations • 25%
No sale completed, TikTok banned • 25%
Further extension granted • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Sold to a non-U.S., non-Chinese company • 25%