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Market
What will be the impact on TikTok's U.S. user base if the ban is enforced by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant user migration to competitors • 25%
Users use VPNs to access TikTok • 25%
Users stop using TikTok • 25%
Other user behaviors • 25%
Reports from market research firms or TikTok's official user statistics
Story
Supreme Court Unanimously Upholds TikTok Ban Starting Sunday Unless ByteDance Divests
Jan 17, 2025, 03:08 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court has unanimously upheld, in a 9-0 decision, a federal law requiring TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest from the popular social media app by Sunday, January 19th, or face a nationwide ban. The ruling, which rejected TikTok's First Amendment challenge, allows the divest-or-ban law to go into effect as scheduled. The Court cited national security concerns over data collection practices and Chinese control of the app. The ban, set to begin this Sunday, could potentially affect TikTok's 170 million American users unless ByteDance complies with the divestment requirement.
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Similar markets
Decrease by 25-50% • 25%
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
Decrease by less than 25% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant decrease (>50%) • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Minor decrease (<25%) • 25%
Moderate decrease (25-50%) • 25%
Majority migrate to alternative platforms • 25%
No significant change in user behavior • 25%
Significant decline in user engagement • 25%
Majority continue using TikTok despite restrictions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Data not available • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
User base increases • 25%
User base remains stable • 25%
TikTok exits U.S. market • 25%
Increase in Snapchat Users • 25%
No Significant Shift • 25%
Increase in YouTube Shorts Users • 25%
Increase in Instagram Users • 25%
Other • 25%
Migration to other platforms • 25%
Protests or legal action • 25%
Decrease in social media usage • 25%
Significant migration to alternative platforms • 25%
Other significant reactions • 25%
Minimal impact on user base • 25%
Protests or legal action by users • 25%
Increased usage • 25%
Decreased usage • 25%
Organized protests • 25%
No significant change • 25%
User base increases • 25%
Platform inaccessible • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
User base remains stable • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
User base increases • 25%
User base stable • 25%
Platform banned • 25%
Minimal backlash • 25%
Significant backlash • 25%
No noticeable backlash • 25%
Moderate backlash • 25%