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Market
What will be the impact on TikTok's U.S. user base by January 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in users • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Data not available • 25%
User data reports from TikTok or independent analytics firms
Story
U.S. DOJ Urges Supreme Court to Reject Trump's Request to Delay TikTok Ban, Citing National Security
Jan 3, 2025, 10:39 PM
The U.S. Department of Justice has urged the Supreme Court to reject President-elect Donald Trump's request to delay the implementation of a law that would ban TikTok in the U.S. unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests from it by January 19. The Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments on January 10, just days before the law is scheduled to take effect. Trump has expressed opposition to the ban, citing his desire to resolve the issue politically once he takes office on January 20. TikTok, used by 170 million Americans, has argued that the law stems from its refusal to censor certain viewpoints, while the Justice Department maintains that the law aims to sever the app's ties to the Chinese government due to national security concerns. The outcome of the Supreme Court's decision could have significant implications for the platform's users.
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Similar markets
User base remains stable • 25%
TikTok exits U.S. market • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
User base increases • 25%
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
Decrease by less than 20% • 25%
Decrease by 20-50% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No Change • 25%
100-150 million • 25%
150-170 million • 25%
Less than 100 million • 25%
Over 170 million • 25%
TikTok continues operations without change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. buyer • 25%
Significant migration to alternative platforms • 25%
Protests or legal action by users • 25%
Minimal impact on user base • 25%
Other significant reactions • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
Operational changes without sale • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Not operational • 25%
Under new ownership • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
Less favorable • 25%
More favorable • 25%
Polarized • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Banned • 25%
Operates with ByteDance • 25%
Operates independently • 25%
Other • 25%